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According to Deutsche Bank’s accountants, once you include collateral held (likely garbage assets valued at mark to model fantasy land valuations), guarantees received (from by 75% as the Greek Crisis worsened from 2010 to 2011…now claiming that thanks to their risk management, their “real” exposure to Greece is only 1.2 billion Euros.It’s also worth noting that in 2010 Deutsche Bank claimed to have only 1.6 billion Euros’ worth of credit exposure to Greece, whereas by late 2011 the number has swelled to 2.8 billion Euros. how exactly does a bank, which is supposedly managing its risk levels and adjusting its exposure accordingly, manage to its credit exposure to something as financially toxic as Greece by 75% in a nine month period? But here’s how Deutsche Bank’s accountants try to explain that none of this (even the 2.8 billion Euros’ worth of exposure) is a big deal.If the above chart sounds like it’s written in obfuscating language, let me translate it for you.So it’s a bit odd that Deutsche Bank’s 2010 416-page annual report would only mention the term “Greece” two times.Regardless, let’s fast forward to Deutsche Bank’s Third Quarter 2011 filing (its most recent) for some more recent data.Well, according to Deutsche Bank’s in Deutsche Bank’s 2010 416-page annual report.Remember, this was the year in which the Greek Euro Crisis nearly took the system down: between January 2010 and June 2001, when the first Greek bailout was announced, the Euro lost 17% if its value.
This means Commerzbank now faces 2.3 billion Euros’ worth of write-downs on its Greek holdings…Ok, well if we’re going to play by those rules, let’s consider that when we include the rest of the PIIGS countries, Deutsche Bank’s “actual” exposure (as downplayed as it might be) is still 35 BILLION Euros, an amount equal to 60% of the banks’ total equity.At these levels, and using the currently proposed Greek 50% haircuts as a model for future defaults in the EU, Deutsche Bank could very easily see 10-15 billion in write-downs from its PIIGS’ exposure.which means it’s wiped out 21% of its entire equity…which pushes its leverage levels through the roof and most likely renders it totally insolvent (there is no way Greece is the only toxic junk this bank owns).
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On a side note, I want to point out that we’re completely ignoring the fact that if Greece defaults so will Italy and Spain whose sovereign debt and financial institutions Deutsche Bank has 14.8 BILLION EUROS worth exposure to: an amount equal 23% of Deutsche Bank’s TOTAL EQUITY.